WSJ survey of 16 economists on AI and the labor market

I didn’t need my Duke University economics degree to know that economists are famous for disagreeing. You can ask ten of them a question and you'll get eleven answers.

So, when the Wall Street Journal surveyed 16 leading economists on AI and the labor market, I wasn’t surprised at all by the varying opinions.  Will AI replace or enhance workers? Will AI widen inequality or narrow it? Will AI result in net job loss or net growth? The opinions ran in every direction.

But one consensus view runs through every answer from the optimists to the pessimists: disruption. Careers interrupted. Roles eliminated. Transitions employees didn’t choose.

David Deming, Dean of Harvard College and Professor at Harvard University, comments about telephone switch board operators who were displaced by “mechanical switching technology” and the invention of the rotary phone. He explains how women who had those jobs or would have taken those jobs became stenographers, administrative assistants and waitresses. They didn’t become unemployed but they did have to experience terminations, job searches and career changes.

The laws have evolved considerably since the 1920s and 30s when that disruption occurred. Just as companies adopted new technology then, today, companies will adopt AI because it serves their interests; that's their prerogative and arguably their obligation to shareholders. But the employee who signed the offer letter, relocated a family, turned down competing opportunities, and committed years of work made a bargain too.

When that bargain ends in a surprise termination dressed up as restructuring or an uncontrollable event, the consequences shouldn't hit only one side. And the law in many states protects employees more than they know. Rather than just accepting termination as a consequence of something that happened to the company, employees should ask: what do I deserve as a result of this choice the company is making?

Severance terms, equity treatment, bonus eligibility, non-compete releases are negotiable. Most professionals find that out too late, after they've signed whatever was put in front of them. Or even if they did know, they couldn’t figure out how to negotiate or what to ask for.

The economists agree disruption is coming. The professionals who come through it intact will be the ones who not only retool and re-educate but those who know what they are signing and what they are really worth.